Week 32: trade anything trending against the USD

"May you live in interesting times" is a Chinese saying I believe. Well it has been an interesting week. I took three long trades: two on the NZDUSD and one on the AUDUSD. As I lost 5% of my account on these trades, I stopped trading for the week (as per my tradingplan). The market was all over the place. Especially the USD was making some big moves. As the US has lost it's triple A rating from S&P the best bet coming week is to look for continuations in trends against the USD. The Euro and the GB Pound are moving in a range against the Greenback, so we will not look at these pairs. So I will take a look at the commodities and save haven pairs.

The pair retraced 50% of the move higher since the low of march 2011 and bounced. However, the up trend is not strongly in place anymore, so I am going to wait for a close above the 20 EMA, before looking for new long setups.

Last week the pair failed to bounce of the 8 and 20 EMA. Last Friday it formed a bullish pinbar on the 50 EMA and the resistance area between the red lines on the chart. I will go long.
It looks like we could go short here. But I would like to see the price move below the 20 EMA and than bounce of it, before taking a short.
Last Wednesday and Thursday produced pinbars bouncing of the 8 day EMA. I'll go short and place a stop above Thursday's pinbar.

The only way is up with Gold. Let's see if this week will show us a clear long setup we can take.
Have a good week everyone.