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Showing posts from May, 2012

Missed trades, but not to worry

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I have been playing it save this week as I was a not sure what Memorial day would do for liquidity. My cautiousness may have led to blindness, because I totally missed out on another perfect setup on Brent Oil. The third last bar in below chart formed on Memorial day. I found it a bit small, but it was a pinbar that I could trade according to the method I use. Anyway I had doubts about the trade due to the off-day for US banks. And when in doubt, I do not trade. So all in all it looked like a good decision until I saw today's sell off.. Oh well, you cannot be in all trades and there will be more to come.
Then something else happened. My entry order did not get filled on the USDJPY today. Why? you might ask. First let's look at the chart.
First of all I never enter at market, but always by limit order. I place them with stops and TPs, but also with bounds. These bounds are the level of slippage I am willing to accept in order to get filled. In "normal" moving markets (n…

Short EUR. Long USD

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Earlier today I posted my analyses on shorting the EURUSD. Below are some conditional orders I just placed. And looking back at them I see a consistent pattern and that is: Short the Euro. Long the US Dollar. I am not gonna explain below charts, I just put them up as a reference. Let's see by the end of the week how things played out.



Have a good trading week.

Trading week 22: EURUSD falling of a cliff?

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Will the EURO be falling of the proverbial cliff this week? I'll share my analyses in a minute. First let's look back at how I did last week.

Last weekI only got into one trade last week: on Brent Oil. Most of the currency pairs I follow did not have proper trade setups. And the other that did, did not trigger my entries, because price did not retrace (enough) before moving in my direction.I was tempted to short the EURUSD. That would have been profitable, but not inline with my tradingplan and therefore way to risky. And I am not here to gamble, I am here to manage risk first and then look at possible returns later. So in that sense I am quite pleased I did not short the EURUSD. So let's look at the one perfect setup I did trade.
Brent Oil is behaving perfectly lately looking at it from a price action perspective. In week 20 there was a pin bar with trend setup and this week an inside bar setup with trend. I placed my stop just above the mother candle and then targeted two …

Nice price action video

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You can see the complete webinar at fxstreet.

Trading week 21

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New pairs added
Last week was a good week, mostly because I saw and capitalized on opportunities in pairs, that I was not trading yet. This week I have officially added them to my method. Here are the charts with all the S&R levels mapped out. Besides currency pairs I have also included Brent Oil and the S&P 500 index. Please see my updated tradingplan.





8 and 21 EMA
Another thing that I had not yet clearly defined in my trading plan is that I also use the 8 and 21 EMA for dynamic support and resistance.

Economic calendar week 21

countrydatenameNew Zealand20120522 03:00:00RBNZ Inflation Expectations (YoY)United Kingdom20120522 08:30:00Consumer Price Index (YoY)United Kingdom20120522 08:30:00Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)United Kingdom20120523 08:30:00Bank of England MinutesJapan20120524 05:00:00Bank of Japan Monthly Economic SurveyUnited Kingdom20120524 08:30:00Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)United Kingdom20120524 08:30:00Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
GMT source fxstreet.com

20% up this week

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It's been an awesome trading week. I succeeded in minimizing my loses and letting some profits run. All while sticking to my trading plan, but being flexible about the implementation per trade. I do not expect all weeks to be like this, but I welcome any week like this.

Here are the results of one week of trades (Thursday to Thursday):

MARKETDATE/TIMEP/LEUR/JPYMay 17, 16:596,20%EUR/GBPMay 17, 14:30-2,06%Brent OilMay 17, 10:122,70%NZD/USDMay 16, 06:168,95%EUR/GBPMay 15, 12:42-0,57%EUR/JPYMay 14, 14:332,47%EUR/USDMay 14, 12:451,97%GBP/USDMay 13, 21:56-2,06%GBP/JPYMay 10, 16:09-2,06%EUR/GBPMay 10, 01:424,73%




20,26%

Here are some of the trades in review.
Patience Daniel-sanI got stopped out of this trade by just a few pips. All GBP crosses seem to have this problem and I will consider using larger buffers on my stops on these crosses. Anyway, I could have gotten into the trade again after the inside bar that formed the next day. But as there was no proper trend I expected this trade would…

Forgot EURJPY

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In yesterdays post I forgot to mention and show my analysis of EURJPY. It turned out I had a profitable trade there. The setup was pretty straight forward. An inside pin bar formed in the direction of the trend. There was however support near at the 102,40 level, so I decided to place a stop half way the pin bar in order to maintain a risk reward ratio of 1:2.You can see my order marked on the char.
Tomorrow I expect the price to linger around the support level before dropping like a rock. But nothing is sure in trading so a retrace back to the 104 or 105 level is also not unthinkable still this week. I'll just watch the price action as it unfolds and act according to my tradingplan.

Trading week 20

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Here are my weekly trade analyses and economic calendar week 20.
Nice short Seems there is a strong down trend going on at EURGBP. The 21 SMA (blue line) is sloping down nicely and the 8 and 21 EMA are diverging. Last week price gapped down after the weekend and I traded down from the 0,8065 S&L line to the 0,8000 S&L line. Was a nice trade. After that on friday price moved up on a bounce of the 0,8000 level. I mapped out the expected price movement by a blue dashed line. If price breaks below the 0,8000 level I will be in for a short trade to the 0,7900 level, but first I expect price to continue moving up and bounce of the 0,8065 level. I might enter a short trade again at thet level depending on the price action we will see.

Trade momentum The EURUSD isn't trending as much as the EURGBP, but there is a strong downward momentum as the strong 1,3000 level was broken last week. So I placed a limit sell order just below the 1,2900 level and wil trade it down to the next S&a…

Added GBPJPY and EURGBP

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I just finished mapping support and resistance on my GBPJPY and EURGBP charts. I will include these pairs from now on in my trading. Below are screens of the charts. The S&R lines of the other pairs did not move, so I will not post new screenshots of them.


And here is my list of upcoming events that may cause high volatility:

countrydatenameAustralia20120510 01:30:00Unemployment Rate s.a.Australia20120510 01:30:00Employment Change s.a.European Monetary Union20120510 08:00:00ECB Monthly ReportUnited Kingdom20120510 11:00:00BoE Asset Purchase FacilityGMT source fxstreet.com

When I can I check up on upcoming news event by watching Dukascopy's youtube channel. Here's the report for this monday:

Investing by numbers

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It seems like savers are losers in todays financial world. If they are lucky the interest on their saving make up for the inflation. But clueless investors have been worse of. Many soon to be retirees have seen their capital shrink, while their "financial managers" just kept earning bonuses. Seeing all this I decided to take charge of my own financial future. This blog will be an investment journal. I also hope that it will help and inspire others to take action and work towards becoming financially independent.

One of the biggest downsides of large investment funds is that they have so many funds to move, that it is difficult for them to move in and out of specific funds. A small investor has many disadvantages, but one of the advantages a small investor has over the big dogs is that he /she can move in and out funds without moving the market. If we can learn to read the market we can just ride the biggest trends out there. This is something the big trade funds …

Babysitting trades

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In my trading plan I have pointed out that babysitting trades is one of my weaknesses as a trader and that therefore I should only check up on my trades once a day. Well, today I didn't and it cost me serious pips. I'll explain later. First, let me try and tell you what I mean by babysitting trades.

Every trade is special to me. It takes time and preparation to find a proper setup and to execute the trade. And then I wait and let the trade develop, .. grow, while giving it enough room by not setting a stop to close. And as with letting children grow up, you have to trust that you have done all you can do and step back. It is the lack of trust in my own trade analyses, I guess, that make me check up on trades to often. And it's easy to do by mobile phone. The down side of babysitting trades is not that it costs time, because it doesn't. The main problem I have with babysitting trades is that it makes me get out of potentially profitable trades.

So here is what happened:
On…