Trading week 22: EURUSD falling of a cliff?

Will the EURO be falling of the proverbial cliff this week? I'll share my analyses in a minute. First let's look back at how I did last week.

Last week

I only got into one trade last week: on Brent Oil. Most of the currency pairs I follow did not have proper trade setups. And the other that did, did not trigger my entries, because price did not retrace (enough) before moving in my direction.I was tempted to short the EURUSD. That would have been profitable, but not inline with my tradingplan and therefore way to risky. And I am not here to gamble, I am here to manage risk first and then look at possible returns later. So in that sense I am quite pleased I did not short the EURUSD. So let's look at the one perfect setup I did trade.
Brent Oil - Perfect setup
Brent Oil is behaving perfectly lately looking at it from a price action perspective. In week 20 there was a pin bar with trend setup and this week an inside bar setup with trend. I placed my stop just above the mother candle and then targeted two times my stop distance for taking profits.

EURUSD back to 2010 levels?

EURUSD - back to 2010 levels?
The EURUSD has broken the 1,2500 level last week and closed just above it. I had to look back at May - June 2010 to find the next down side S&R levels at 1,2150 and 1,1864. I looked all the way back to 2006 and could not find any significant other levels in between. So if price moves below the 1,2500 level again there is a good chance price will move down rapidly to the 1,2150 level. Friday formed a bearish pinbar between the 1,2625 and the 1,2500 level. This signals serious downward momentum in a down trend while there is serious downward potential! Below is a closer look.
EURUSD - a closer look

My only concern for entering this trade is the fact that US and some EU markets are closed coming Monday. This will mean poor liquidity in the markets, which could lead in best case to not much price movement and in worst case could lead to some erratic price behavior. I'll take this into account by placing my stop not to tight. I will also try to manage this trade. I will probably move the stop to break even once I am 1R in profit and then see how far this ride will go.
EURUSD - ideal ride?

Economic calendar week 22

country date name
Germany 20120529 12:00:00 Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Switzerland 20120531 05:45:00 Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
Germany 20120531 07:55:00 Unemployment Change
United States 20120531 12:30:00 Gross Domestic Product Annualized
United States 20120601 12:30:00 Nonfarm Payrolls
United States 20120601 12:30:00 Unemployment Rate
GMT source fxstreet.com

Comments