Review week 22 and looking ahead at week 23
Nonfarm payroll and US unemployment ratesI should have exited two open trades on the EURUSD and USDCHF before the nonfarm payroll and US unemployment rates came out on Friday. Also I should not have placed new entry orders that Thursday before. Why didn't I? Well, I simply forgot and did not check the calendar, that I prepare every week. So I need to make it a habit of always checking the economic calendar every trading day.
|EURUSD - reacting on news|
|USDCHF - reacting on news|
Saved by the boundI had a sell order placed on Gold based on a pin-bar setup. As price spiked up due to outcome of the news event my order was cancelled as it could not be filled within the set bounds. This is exactly why I set bounds, because had my order been filled it would almost immediately be stop at a loss. It would have been better still if I had not placed the order at all.
|Gold - Order cancelled at entry|
Got out on price action signalSometimes a trade works out halfway and then price movement signals I need to close out the order early. This happened this week on the EURGBP. I entered short and made it into profit nicely. Then a bullish pin bar like candle appeared. It was not yet convincing in signaling a price reversal as price was still below the 8 EMA. Then the next day price moved up fiercely without even moving below the opening of the candle. Once price moved above the 8 EMA I closed out the trade at a small loss instead of at my preset stop which would have cost me my standard risk size of 2%. The green candle on Thursday showed that a higher low was made, signaling a possible reversal. If price breaks above the 0,8100 level then I consider the down trend as broken.
|EURGBP - price action hinting reversal|
Reversal tradesTalking about reversals... Upcoming weeks charts do not yet show any trend following trade setups according to my defined trading plan. However I do see some nice counter trend reversal trades, especially for the EURJPY and AUDUSD. I am not going to trade them as I just cannot see how to enter the trades and get at least a risk to reward ratio of 1:2. However, I will keep an eye on them and play the trades out in my mind. If you are interested in trading reversals, check out Nick B.'s reversals trading strategy at www.forex4noobs.com.
EURJPY is very interesting as it has hit a low at about 97,000 that was hit only at the beginning of this year and I cannot find it looking back all the way to 2005. So it is an all time double bottom, just below parity with a huge bullish pin bar!
|EURJPY - Reversal|
Economic calendar week 23
|European Monetary Union||20120604 09:00:00||Producer Price Index (YoY)|
|European Monetary Union||20120605 09:00:00||Retail Sales (YoY)|
|European Monetary Union||20120606 09:00:00||Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)|
|European Monetary Union||20120606 09:00:00||Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)|
|European Monetary Union||20120606 12:30:00||ECB President Draghi's Speech|
|European Monetary Union||20120606 12:30:00||ECB Press Conference|
|Australia||20120607 01:30:00||Unemployment Rate s.a.|
|Australia||20120607 01:30:00||Employment Change s.a.|
|United Kingdom||20120607 11:00:00||BoE Asset Purchase Facility|
|United States||20120607 14:00:00||Fed's Bernanke testifies|
|Canada||20120608 12:30:00||Unemployment Rate|
|Canada||20120608 12:30:00||Net Change in Employment|
GMT, source: fxstreet.com
Monday 4th of June is a UK Bank and New Zealand market holiday . I caught this watching Dukascopy's Economic Calendar.