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Showing posts from July, 2012

Looking ahead at week 31 and reviewing week 30

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Review week 30
Result: -2R

Last weeks open position on the EURGBP got stopped out at break even. I also got in on a short on EURJPY that got stopped out at break even. The gap down on the EURO closed and then Mr Draghi finished the job by saying the ECB will take every step necessary to keep the interestrates in the Euro Zone under control. Meaning QE for Europe? Anyway the Euro rebounced and European stock markets rallied. Let's see if it will be a dead cat bounce or a real bounce.
Then I got stopped on a trade on the AUDUSD and  the SPX500. I do not like to plot to many lines on my charts, but based on these trades I will keep the 20 EMA on my Ichimoku charts as markets /  prices are reacting to it. This is most clearly visible at the AUDUSD chart.




Analysis week 31My analysis of the Ichimoku cloud shows that the Euro is up for a dead cat bounce. Next week might bring all kinds of new doubts about the Euro Zone debts. This overly news driven market really messes with my trading. …

Looking ahead at week 30 and reviewing week 29

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Review week 29 Result: 0,7 R up on an open position in EURGBP.
I will move the stop to break even, which is just above Fridays high.

I also placed a long order on the AUDUSD that did not get triggered unfortunately. I'll share the setup in below chart. It was a bit annoying that my order did not get triggered as it was a pretty good setup. I am considering to be more flexible and allow orders to be placed at the 38% fib level instead of the 50% level as long as the R2R rate on the trade is around 2 or more.


Analysis week 30
Based on my Ichimoku analysis I will be looking for positions in the following pairs.
Short: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, USDJPY and USDCAD
Long: AUDUSD, USDCHF and Brent Oil
If you want to know how I come up with these directions, you can best see the video in last weeks analysis.

Last Friday EURJPY closed below the ultimate low of June the 1st (95,57) at 95,41 making a new all time low. Also all Ichimoku cloud signs are indicating strong bearish momentum; …

Looking ahead at week 29 and reviewing week 28

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Review week 28
Result: 0R
I made 4 trades. Two shorts on the EURUSD. One ended up a -1R loss and the other a 2R profit. At Silver I got stopped at a -1R loss and at the USDCHF I got out before the weekend on break even. I got stopped out as there was some unexpected news by the European Commission about loans for saving Spanish banks causing prices of the EURUSD and Silver to shoot up and than fall again sharply stopping me out in the process. I tell ya, at that moment I was ready to start trading weekly charts only.



Updated tradingplanI updated my trading plan to reflect how I integrate Ichimoku Kinko Hyo into my trading. Check it out!

Weekly analysis week 29I made a video of me going through my charts looking for pairs that are ready for trading either long or short. Please see below. I don't look yet for entry signals just for directions to trade in or for signs telling me to stay out of the market.

Coming week I will be looking for price action signals to get me into trade…

Reviewing Q2 and looking ahead at week 28

Reviewing Q2
So here is looking at my trading results of Q2, 2012:

April - 4,5%
May 28,8%
June -5,3%

Total 19%

Top performers
EURJPYNZD/USDBrent oilEUR/USDLosers
AUD/USDGBP/USDUSD/CADI am not jumping to conclusions yet about what pairs to continue to trade or not to trade. I will trade same pairs as long as setups are present.
Looking aheadI made a video of me going through my charts. I figured that be easier then typing and making screen shots. Unfortunately the sound was awful, so I will have to do it over. I hope to post it here soon.
Economic calendar week 28
DateTimeNameCountry20120709 01:30:00Consumer Price Index (YoY)China20120709 09:00:00BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker speaksUnited Kingdom20120709 12:30:00ECB President Draghi's SpeechEuropean Monetary Union20120711 06:00:00Consumer Price Index (YoY)Germany20120711 06:00:00Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Germany20120711 18:00:00FOMC MinutesUnited States20120712 01:30:00Unemployment Rate s.a.Australia20120712 01:3…

This is why I don't trade news days

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Below is yesterdays daily chart of the SPX500. On Tuesday I spotted the pin bar and placed a limit buy order where the white line is. Unfortunately my order was not triggered and the market took of without me. Then yesterday I saw another change to get long. Again a pin bar and inside bar on top of a S&R level.
So I placed a limit buy again above the pin bar and a stop below the wig of the pin. I knew today there would be the ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference. I was just so keen on getting in that I, not only disregarded this, but also forgot about the fact that the pin bar had formed on a day that the US market was closed making it invalid.
So why I don't like trading on news days? Because there is a big change you get zigzagged, whipsawed, or what ever you call it. The big boys fake everyone into a trade and then trade the other way.
This is how you lose money. Getting long at the top (blue triangle) and getting out at the bottom (brown dot). I just see it as a…

Review week 26 and economic calendar week 27

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Review week 26
Result: 1,7R in 1 closed position. No positions open at the moment.

I know, I said I would not take any trades this week. And I almost did, but the trade I took was just to good to pass up on. Let's have a look.
Oanda's daily candles close 7 hours after the NY close. This means that at the time I was looking at the chart, the pin bar was different and was still missing 7 hours of data. I have noticed that most of the times price action formations / signals look very similar looking at Oanda's chart at the NY close time while comparing them to charts that have daily closes on the NY close. I find it convenient to trade directly from the charts I am looking at. The only thing is, that looking back at trades tends to give a different picture. This in turn clouds reflecting on trades made. So as a reference I use FXpro's MT4 platform which has NY close candles. This trade on the SPX500 I based upon analysis of price action in combination with Ichimoku Kinko H…