Looking ahead at week 31 and reviewing week 30

Review week 30


Result: -2R

Last weeks open position on the EURGBP got stopped out at break even. I also got in on a short on EURJPY that got stopped out at break even. The gap down on the EURO closed and then Mr Draghi finished the job by saying the ECB will take every step necessary to keep the interestrates in the Euro Zone under control. Meaning QE for Europe? Anyway the Euro rebounced and European stock markets rallied. Let's see if it will be a dead cat bounce or a real bounce.
Then I got stopped on a trade on the AUDUSD and  the SPX500. I do not like to plot to many lines on my charts, but based on these trades I will keep the 20 EMA on my Ichimoku charts as markets /  prices are reacting to it. This is most clearly visible at the AUDUSD chart.

AUDUSD - Long -1R

SPX500 - Long -1R


Analysis week 31

My analysis of the Ichimoku cloud shows that the Euro is up for a dead cat bounce. Next week might bring all kinds of new doubts about the Euro Zone debts. This overly news driven market really messes with my trading. As you can see below, my analysis still shows shorting the EURGBP and EURJPY, while my shorts on these pairs did get stopped out at break even and then continued some more to pass even my initial stops. Markets seem very volatile to me, which makes them more difficult to trade on a pure PA basis.
Long: AUDUSD, Brent
Short: USDJPY, EURGBP, EURJPY, USDCAD

A note on Gold: Looks like Gold could be breaking higher. Price has moved above the kumo. There is a weak tenkan - kijun cross to the up-side. The chikou has broken past price action and is almost out of the cloud. If price convincingly breaks the 1625 level and closes above it, I'll be considering going long on gold.

Economic calendar week 31


GMT Event
Aug 01
18:15 US USD Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
Aug 02
09:00 EMU EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
11:00 UK GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Aug)
Aug 03
12:30 US USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)
12:30 US USD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
Source: fxstreet.com

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