Week 34

Review week 33

Result: 1,5R
Open positions: USDCAD +0,7R, Brent Oil -0,2R, USDCHF 0R
USDCAD - short open position

EURGBP - short +2R Pinbar

USDJPY - short -0,5R

This was an Ichimoku trade. After the medium tenkan - kijun cross I went short as soon as the price closed outside the kumo (white line). The chikou had also crossed the price action and MAs. I placed my stop 10 pips from the kijun and kept trailing it. I should have got out with a small profit when price had an open and close above the tenkan (the shorter white line), but I didn't. Then price reversed on worse then expected news on the Japanese economy, stopping me out at -0,5R. At the moment the pair is almost looking bullish again, especially if price will break out of the kumo.

Looking ahead to week 34

For entries according to my trading plan I will be looking for long and short entries for following pairs:

short: USDCAD

Currently I am short on USDCAD and I have an add-on entry order based on last Fridays inside bar. Stop is 8 pips above Thursdays candle. TP is at 2R, which is exactly the same exit as for the main order.
USDCAD - short add-on entry

I also have a long limit entry order on NZDJPY based on bullish Ichimoku and an inside bar that is a pin bar as well. I will have to watch out for a false break. If this happens it will invalidate the trade and it will give an opportunity to trade the reversal.

To keep an eye on

Triangle formation coming together on 25th of October. Many technicals are coming together here. I am looking at it as a long kumo breakout. Price might break out of the kumo soon only to drop back again to retest the lower flat senkou span A. From that point I expect price to take of. I will probably be looking for a price action signal at that level and then trade back up to top of the range.
For a longer term bigger picture view, see: http://peterlbrandt.com/the-british-pound-and-a-short-lesson-on-why-most-novice-traders-lose-money/
GBPUSD - waiting for long breakout

Also Gold has some serious technical build up to the up side:
  • Tenkan above kijun
  • Price above the cloud
  • Chikou above price action, cloud and MAs
  • Senkou span A above senkou span B
  • Accelerating trend lines to the up side
  • Heavy resistance between 1625 and 1640 (white lines)

Gold - build up to the up side
Once resistance is broken I am thinking of a serious move up for Gold.

Economic calendar week 34

GMT Event
Aug 21
01:30 AU AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
03:00 NZ NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations (YoY) (Q3)
Aug 22
15:00 CA CAD BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
18:00 US USD FOMC Minutes
Aug 23
06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q2)
06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)
06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q2)
n/a EMU EUR Samaras-Merkel meeting
Aug 24
n/a EMU EUR Samaras-Hollande meeting
12:30 US USD Durable Goods Orders (Jul)
source: fxstreet.com