Review week 43

Last week was an encouraging week with many trade opportunities according to my trading plan. I opened 5 positions. By Wednesday I was about 23% up on my account. It might have been wise to have taken some profits off of the table at that point as on the moment I am only up by 8% on the week, but I decided to try and let my profits run. So on Thursday and Friday the expected consolidation and retrace kicked in on the open trades. Below are the snapshots of the open trades. I believe they speak for themselves.

A few notes still:

USDJPY - I placed an add on order as a second inside bar had formed. I was aware of the resistance ahead, but it was to far away to be placing my entry order above that level. As price closed Friday above the support level of 79,59 I decided to keep the position open.

USDCAD - On Thursday all long entry rules were triggered. Additional confirmation was also available by the fact that price closed above the kumo and that the future kumo is bullish. Price hit almost parity and then retraced. I expect price to retrace back to the flat kumo were it will find support and bounce up. If price has not moved away from the kumo significantly by next Thursday, I'll be closing out this trade.





Review of GBPUSD trade I did not take

On monday evening I considered entering below drawn out trade. The reason I did not take the trade is that it did not fit my trading plan and also only offered just over 1 risk-reward ratio. I still like to record this trade setup as it illustrates the effectiveness of the Chikou (blue line on the chart). So we had bearish momentum. This was inferred by the Tenkan crossing below the Kijun and the large bearish candles on two days before. Also the pin bar, which was an inside bar as well, showed rejection of higher prices. The following kept me out of shorting this pair:
  • The Chikou had not yet broken below prices and heading for a support level just above a psych level (1,5900).
  • Current price, if moving lower, would move into the kumo and into the same support level as mentioned.
Therefore I decided on a TP target just above the support level.
GBPUSD - Trade I did not take
Another reason for recording this trade I did not take is so I can review it later when it is time to add more strategies to my trading plan. One of the things I could have done here is move down to a lower timeframe and find a tighter stop.
However, at the moment I do not have the time to go into this.

My view on trading the EURUSD

EURUSD is by far the most traded currency pair. So even though there are no trade opportunities as per my trading plan, I still like to make weekly analysis of this pair.

For about the past 7 weeks EURUSD has been range bound between 1,2800 and 1.3170. If the pair remains within the range, then on the weekly charts the Chikou will break through the past price action. This together with the fact that on the same charts the tenkan is above the kijun, would suggest more up side is most likely.
If the pair moves down out of the range within the coming two weeks, it looks like it will be a very unpredictable ride, as the Chikou will get stuck in the past price action.
If price however breaks higher out of the range within the next couple of weeks, the picture will become pretty clear suggesting more bullish momentum.

EURUSD - daily

EURUSD - weekly

in range: bullish continuation most likely
break higher out of range: strong bullish continuation
break lower out of range: weekly trend unclear until price breaks below 1,2150