What goes up, must come down

Gold and Silver have been extremely bullish in August and September.  And it looks like "what goes up, must come down" is what's in play here as last two weeks down trends were forming. At the beginning of past week the down trend was confirmed by my Ichimoku analysis and then prices started consolidating. Then yesterday / friday prices broke down in an impulsive move in alignment with the trend. Below two charts show how I got in.

So I got in at the break of the mother candles. The yellow dotted lines are my entries. The red lines are my initial stops and the green lines my initial targets. Both trades have potential larger (lower) targets.

Possible long trade on USDJPY

I just spotted this potential long trade on the USDJPY. My guess is, that I am not the only one who spotted this. Japanese institutional traders are known for trading by the Ichimoku cloud. And I bet they are all looking to go long as the cloud is very favourable to the upside, early but still. This in itself, can work as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let's have a look :
USDJPY - preparing to go long
Signs that favour bullish momentum are:
  • price has broken above the kumo
  • future kumo has turned bullish
  • chikou has broken through previous priceaction, MAs and kumo
  • tenkan has crossed above the kejun
Yesterday an inside bar formed. I placed an entry order 8 pips above the mother candle and my stop 8 pips below the mother candle. My only concern is that my order will be triggered and that price will then move back to the flat kumo before continuing up again.  So I will probably move my entry order up by about 10 pips (above the s&r) in order to stay out of a false break.

I hope you found my analysis helpful. For me it helps to write it down. If you like my posts please share them or let my know what you think on any of the social networks I am active on.