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Showing posts from November, 2012

Back trading funds

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End of May 2012 I got my funds out of the markets. I had two reasons for doing so:
1) I wanted to focus on my forexsamurai trading method
2) I felt I did not have enough funds to properly diversify my portfolio.

Well, I got my forex trading method more or less figured out and got a rhythm trading it. And I found some funds to properly trade my fund samurai strategy. Thanks dad! I won't let you down. And I also got back in with my own funds of course. Because you got to be in it to win it. This is especially true looking back at the past half year. Had I stayed in the market with the portfolio I had, I would have made some nice returns. I did not calculate exactly how much, but all but one positions would have been positive. And a couple of positions made over 50% returns. However it's nothing more than another hint that I am on the right track here. As said, before committing any more of my money (or my dads money) I really need to do some back testing and figure out how I can be…

Review week 47

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Result: -1R, but 1% up on equity
-1R NZDUSD at 5% risk
-1R USDJPY at 2% risk
= -7%
1R up on Silver at 5% risk
0,7R up on Gold at 5% risk
= 8,5%

Moved stops on Gold and Silver just below Fridays closing prices. If I get stopped out I will end up with about 1% return on equity on all trades of last week. And then I will be looking for new entry possibilities.

Here are last weeks trades on the charts.




On the USDJPY trade I put a very tight stop based on the fact that there was a S&R level near by and I got stopped out. Actually, my usual stop would have kept me in the trade, which in turn would have hit it's target just before the next S&R level. Again a lesson that I should just stick to my method. I did lower my risk on this trade to 2%.

I still have one pending entry order long on USDCAD. I will keep a close eye on how this pair develops beginning next week. If price will bounce up, the order stays in place. As soon as price closes below last weeks low, then I will cancel the order.


Review week 46: the power of risk-reward ratios

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Result: 0R over 5 trades
I got 4 losing trades and only one winning trade. Still due to the power of good risk-reward ratios on these trades I managed to break even.

Let's look at the losers first.
My trade on the  USDCHF got stopped out at - 1R.
Than on Friday I closed out all open positions I still had. Market was slow and seemed to be going nowhere. I did not want to stay in the market over the weekend. So when I saw a change to get out at break even, I did. So I closed out the following positions at small loses:
EURUSD -0,4R

GBPUSD -0,2R

USDCAD -0,4R

All losses were offset by just one 2R winner on USDJPY.
I believe this shows the power of having a reward - risk ratio of 2 or greater. USDJPY now formed an inside bar again on Friday. So this would offer an opportunity to get long again at he break of the mother candle. I am trading continuations of the trend. Last week I saw below video. It is a recording of a webinar of Forex4Noobs. Nick the guy behind forex4noobs explains here why he t…

Back to basics, back to bash

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It had been quite some time since I wrote a bash script, besides the usual one liners I use for getting around my Linux boxes. And it seems to me that unix shell scripting and especially bash scripting is a perfect basis for other scripting languages like perl, python, php and even javascript or xslt. Luckily, on the internet there are some wonderful resources to help learn or get back up to speed with bash scripting. So I figured I'd share some of these.

Review week 45

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Result: 0R while I was up on open positions in the beginning of the week by 3,2R.

So what happened?

Well, US elections that's what.

I said in last post that I might step to the side lines and I did. On Wednesday at the end of the London session a lot of unwinding of open positions seamed to happen as everybody wanted to be squared before the outcome US presidential elections. At that moment the polls were very close to call a clear winner in the elections. This all meant risk off. So I got out at a combined position of 0R.

So here are the charts for reference. E = entry, S = stop




Looking ahead at week 46
Based on ichimoku analysis I will be looking for these trades with entries according to my trading method:

Long: USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Short: EURUSD, GBPUSD

Calendar week 46
GMTEventNov 1309:30GBPCore Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)09:30GBPConsumer Price Index (MoM) (Oct)09:30GBPConsumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)10:00EURZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Nov)10:00EURZEW Survey - Current Situa…

Review week 44

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Result:
1.2R at about 5% risk per trade is 7% profit.
3,2R at about 5% risk per trade is 18% in profit

It's been quite a trading week with the storm Sandy hitting the US east cost, making Wallstreet to stay closed on Monday and Tuesday. This kept many prices in a range and stopped any follow through I was expecting on the trades I had on. Then at the and of the week as trading resumed as normal, the US job figures where about to be released ahead of the US presidential elections coming Wednesday.

So as Gold and Silver prices closed both above their tenkan values, while I was short, I decided to take some profits, especially in the light of all the above mentioned developments. And I placed new entry orders lower to get in possible continuations. Friday the job figures turned out to be more positive as was expected. So it was risk off again and this got me back in the shorts on Gold and Silver. Below are my charts with notes on how I saw and played things:




Looking ahead at coming week
Mo…