Showing posts from December, 2012

Review week 52 2012

Christmas in the post-War United States (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Result: 0% , no trades entered

In last weeks post I wrote about nice trends on Gold, Silver and the USDJPY and that we might see continuations right after Christmas. Well, on the USDJPY we did actually see this happen as the Asian session traders are less into Christmas, I guess, as are the London and NY session traders. And it are mostly these last sessions that move Gold and Silver. Unfortunately, I missed entering this by the book inside bar continuation trade as I was busy enjoying the holidays with my family. And that's OK. There will be plenty more opportunities in the coming year.

So here are my analysis of pairs that I see having potential trade setups in the beginning of 2013. Taking all the directions of the trades in consideration this looks like a risk off scenario. So I will be monitoring the market sentiment for this to be still in play.

Related articlesForex Commentary: USDJPY Uptrend Continues, GBPUS…

Review week 51

Result: +7,5%
Two winning trades on EURUSD and USDCHF

As said in last weeks post the week started of with a sense risk off. So my long in EURUSD and my short in USDCHF played out nicely until on Wednesday negative news came out about the negotiations between the White house and the republicans not (yet) coming to an agreement on solving the fiscal cliff. I said I would keep an eye on this and I did. So as soon as I saw price action turning against me, I got out. It was actually only later that I heard the news, but from the price action it was obvious something changed / happened.

Coming week will be a broken trading week, probably with light volume. There are some nice inside bars in solid trends in Silver, Gold and USDJPY. Maybe right after Christmas we will see some continuations here that will make for a short term play.

Review week 50: bit overdue

English: President Barack Obama confers with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke following their meeting at the White House. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)Last week and coming week are busy weeks for me personally with the coming holidays and all, so my weekly review is one day late and I am not sure if my next review will be ready next Sunday. Anyway, the results are OK and that's what counts, right?

Result: 10,5% return on equity
2 x long on AUDUSD winners
1 x long on USDJPY winner
1 x long on NZDUSD winner
1 x long on Silver loser
I closed out my long on Silver early as an add on (second) long order on AUDUSD got tagged and I almost got a margin call. So I closed out the worst performing trade, which was the one on Silver. Turned out to be a good call, because after Bernanke's speech, Silver dropped like a rock.
I closed out all winning trades just before Bernanke's speech on Wednesday, where he anounced more money printing. I didn't wanna stick around and see my profits blow…

Bash script calculating sharpratios on Yahoo Finance data

For one of my trading projects I am looking to calculate something called sharpratio for pricing of an equity over time. This can be done in a spreadsheet, but this becomes a bit laborious as I want to do this for more than 1000 of data sets. So I set out to write a bash script that calculates the sharpratio on any given price data set from Yahoo Finance. If you are interested in how I use this as part of a trading strategy. I will be posting there shortly on how I intend to use below code as part of the trading strategy I use. More info on the theory of sharpratio can be found here.

Here is what the code does:
It reads in a price data file that you can get from Yahoo Finance. The script will run through the file and will calculate the price difference for each trading day from adjusted close to adjusted close the other day. It will also calculate the absolute return made since the starting date of the data set. Then at the end it will calculate the average of the daily differences, …

Review week 49

Result: 0
Two open positions at -3,75% on USDJPY and AUDUSD
The NFP on Friday tagged my USDJPY long order and then price retraced, but I am still confident about the position. On AUDUSD a new inside bar formed, so I placed another long limit order.

Review week 48

Result: +2% on equity

Last weeks positions on Gold and Silver got stopped at the very tight stops I placed. This turned out to be a good call as price reversed sharply.

This week was good for a total of three trades. One long order on Silver got tagged late Thursday. Then price retraced a little and held my position at a small loss. As late Friday afternoon the position came about break even I decided to get out. Again a good call as price dropped substantially during the Friday NY session.

Last week I missed out on the long run on USDJPY as I did not adhere to my trading plan. So this week I did stick to my plan, but I also kept an eye on the price action as price was getting close to the resistance level. As the trading week was coming to an end I there were no signs of follow through I closed out two positions in profit on the USDJPY.

Looks like USDJPY is ready for a pull back to the 20 EMA or Kijun. The Friday high was a recent lower high and a pinbar. Only after a substantial pull ba…

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