Showing posts from February, 2013

Review week 8

I did not trade week 7. So here is the review of week 8.

2,6%, 1 winning trade on spot Gold.

Gold made a large move down on Wednesday. Thursday price retraced halfway. On Friday lower prices were rejected and price closed above a support level. That is why I decided to take profit and place a new limit sell at a lower break level.

Spot silver has shown similar price action. I also have a limit sell there.
Then the same story goes for Cable. Also: in week 6 I got stopped out on a short on the Cable. Looking back at week 7 and 8 I have to conclude that (again) would I have stuck to my method I would have made a very nice profit.

The USDJPY could make another (small) move higher.

Related articlesWeekly Price Action Trading Outlook for February 25th to March 1st 2013

Continuing steadily

Looking back The 2012 results were not bad and the beginning of 2013 has been according to plan. The AEX index has been pretty volatile this year. Since the beginning of the year the index moved about 5% up and then about 7% down. Luckily my portfolio performed nice and steadily. Just to get an idea of my overall performance since I started investing according to my plan I pasted my performance graphs of 2011, 2012 and 2013 (provided by my broker) together.

As of November 2011 my equity has grown steadily by about 11%. The only draw downs have been relatively small draw downs that were part of consolidation periods.

Looking aheadMy strategy is basically a fund picking strategy combined with strict position sizing and risk management  So as long as I am picking the right funds and keep cutting losses in time I do not need to worry about the overall stock market outlook, right? Well, this is not entirely so. I am not hedging against market risk. I just look at fund performance numbers…

Review week 6

Result: -5% by one failed trade on the Cable

There is not much to say, really. Other then that the outlook for the cable is still bearish in my view. My stop should have been above the long red candle of Feb 1, but I thought this was just a to big a stop. Maybe I should just have (again) stuck to the rules of my method. If this means the stop is to big for my appitite, then I shouldn't trade.

Last week (week 5) was a good week in which I gained 42%. This single run up made up for many small losses and then some. I have been recording my trades on this blog consistently since April 2012 and I wanted to see my performance in P&L compared to the money I put into the account so far. So I graphed out hte P&L curve since April 2012 normalized for the deposits I made. Here it is:

Well, that sucks. Totally inconsistent. Maybe I should consider commission trading. That way I would at least make consistent profits. It looks like I keep bouncing around break even by plus to minus 20%…

Review week 5

Result: 42%
3 EURUSD, 2 USDJP and 2 NL25 (AEX-index) trades.
This week both the EURUSD and USDJPY were moving higher like crazy and I was able to capatilize on those moves. EURUSD looks like it is ready for some reversal to the mean. USDJPY will probably consolidate above the 92.00 level. On the NL25 trades I got stopped with one winning and one losing trade, together breaking even. If the AEX index breaks above 357 then I will expect more upside.

Here are the charts with the trade entries and exists on it.

On Friday I started managing the trades on the EURUSD and USDJPY on the 4hr using swing lows and the tenkan as reference points to place tight stops. On the EURUSD I already got stopped before the NFP. Then my USDJPY trades got stopped by 16 pips during the NFP news releases, before shooting even higher.
Related articlesForex Market Commentary: EURUSD and USDJPY Up Trends Continue, 1st February 2013